Jong Ajax 1-0 Emmen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Ajax at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong Ajax vs Emmen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Emmen travel to Sportpark De Toekomst to take on Jong Ajax. The game is scheduled for Monday 6 December 2021, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong Ajax stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Jong Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jong Ajax have posted 5W 1D 2L at Sportpark De Toekomst — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.88 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 88% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Emmen have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Emmen's away record: 5W 3D 1L from 9 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Jong Ajax 2.30 PPG, Emmen 2.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Jong Ajax register both teams scoring in 88% of relevant matches, Emmen in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Jong Ajax in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 65%.
Emmen in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong Ajax 88% and Emmen 41% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Ajax 88% | Emmen 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Ajax 1.76 xG and Emmen 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Ajax attack 1.544 / defence 1.193 | Emmen attack 0.808 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.206 / away 1.531. Jong Ajax carry an above-average attack strength of 1.544 — their λ of 1.76 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 17 Jong Ajax games / 17 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Ajax 45% | Draw 23% | Emmen 32%. Fair-value odds: Jong Ajax 2.22 | Draw 4.35 | Emmen 3.12. Jong Ajax hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.76 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong Ajax are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong Ajax offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.24 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Jong Ajax 88% | Emmen 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Ajax vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Sportpark De Toekomst • Kick-off: Monday 6 Dec 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Ajax 45% | Draw 23% | Emmen 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Jong Ajax 1.76 / Emmen 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Ajax attack 1.544 / def 1.193 | Emmen attack 0.808 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.206 / away 1.531 • Poisson stance: Jong Ajax (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Jong Ajax xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Emmen xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Ajax vs Emmen kick off?
Jong Ajax vs Emmen kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 6 December 2021 at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What was the final score in Jong Ajax vs Emmen?
Jong Ajax 1 - 0 Emmen.
Where is Jong Ajax vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What competition is Jong Ajax vs Emmen part of?
Jong Ajax vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Ajax vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives Jong Ajax a 45% chance of winning, Emmen a 32% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Jong Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Ajax vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Jong Ajax and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Ajax vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and Emmen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jong Ajax and Emmen in?
Jong Ajax (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Emmen (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Jong Ajax's attacking strength (1.54x league average) is weighed against Emmen's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. The same calculation in reverse, Emmen's attack versus Jong Ajax's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Ajax Win
45%
2.25
23%
4.34
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Jong Ajax xG
Total xG
3.24
1.48
Emmen xG
2.25
45%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
17%
5.82
Win to Nil
10%
9.82
6%
17.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.2 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Ajax vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Jong Ajax and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Jong Ajax and 1.48 for Emmen, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Ajax vs Emmen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jong Ajax come into this having played 17 games, going 10W 2D 5L for 1.88 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Jong Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Emmen sit at 1.94 PPG from 17 outings (10W 3D 4L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong Ajax on 1.88 PPG, Emmen on 1.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Jong Ajax's home form reads 5W 1D 2L across 8 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Emmen have taken 2.12 points per game from 8 outings (5W 2D 1L).
Goals in Recent Form
Jong Ajax are averaging 2.47 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.59 scored and 0.76 conceded. Jong Ajax's scoring rate against Emmen's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Ajax have seen both teams score in 88% of their recent games.
Defensively: Emmen in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Ajax
Blended
Emmen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Ajax and Emmen in coming into this match?
Jong Ajax have gone 10W 2D 5L in their last 17 games (1.88 PPG), while Emmen have gone 10W 3D 4L in their last 17 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Ajax at home or Emmen away?
Emmen's away record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Ajax at home: 2.00 PPG; Emmen away: 2.12 PPG.
Have Jong Ajax or Emmen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jong Ajax have kept a clean sheet in 6% of their recent games, Emmen in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 17 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Jong Ajax's record when hosting Emmen specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Jong Ajax
2
Draws
6
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and Emmen?
From 9 meetings on record, Jong Ajax have won 1, Emmen have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong Ajax and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 17 August 2026, when Jong Ajax 4-6 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between Jong Ajax and Emmen?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Jong Ajax at 88%, Emmen at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Jong Ajax and 62% for Emmen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 12% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Ajax home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Ajax play Emmen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 88% of Jong Ajax's games and 62% of Emmen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong Ajax vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Jong Ajax's matches and 62% of Emmen's.
Do Jong Ajax and Emmen tend to score early?
Jong Ajax have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Emmen in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jong Ajax edge out Emmen 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Ajax beat Emmen 1-0 at Sportpark De Toekomst, Regular Season - 18, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 1.76 xG and Emmen 1.48 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Emmen landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 1.54 / defence 1.19 against Emmen attack 0.81 / defence 0.95, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 45% | Draw 23% | Emmen 32%, with Jong Ajax to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 88%, Emmen 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Ajax's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 88% of their matches — today it did not.
Emmen's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong Ajax 1.88 PPG, Emmen 1.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong Ajax win broke the near-deadlock. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. Emmen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.