🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Jong Ajax's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jong Ajax and Dordrecht finished level at 0-0 at Sportcomplex De Toekomst, Regular Season - 15, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 1.42 xG and Dordrecht 1.55 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Jong Ajax fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Dordrecht landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 0.86 / defence 1.12 against Dordrecht attack 0.97 / defence 0.95, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 35% | Draw 24% | Dordrecht 41%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 52%, Dordrecht 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong Ajax's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Dordrecht's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights