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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Jong Ajax and Cambuur share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jong Ajax and Cambuur finished level at 1-1 at Sportpark De Toekomst, Regular Season - 27, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 1.50 xG and Cambuur 1.43 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 1.14 / defence 0.80 against Cambuur attack 1.37 / defence 0.81, drawn from 63/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 39% | Draw 26% | Cambuur 36%, with Jong Ajax to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 64%, Cambuur 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong Ajax's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Cambuur's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jong Ajax 1.06 PPG, Cambuur 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights