🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

ADO Den Haag cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Helmond Sport.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

ADO Den Haag beat Helmond Sport 1-3 at GS Staalwerken Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Helmond Sport 1.37 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.99 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. ADO Den Haag outscored their 1.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helmond Sport attack 0.95 / defence 0.98 against ADO Den Haag attack 1.37 / defence 0.84, drawn from 65/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Helmond Sport 26% | Draw 23% | ADO Den Haag 51%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helmond Sport 63%, ADO Den Haag 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Helmond Sport's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

ADO Den Haag's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.20. Form held, and they took the win. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.12 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights