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Dominant FC Volendam run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Telstar.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Volendam beat Telstar 3-0 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 31, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 2.03 xG and Telstar 1.09 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. FC Volendam beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Telstar landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 1.23 / defence 0.93 against Telstar attack 0.92 / defence 0.99, drawn from 29/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 59% | Draw 22% | Telstar 20%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 71%, Telstar 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Volendam's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Telstar's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Volendam 1.27 PPG, Telstar 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Volendam win broke the near-deadlock. FC Volendam (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.65 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line. Telstar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights