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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC Volendam edge out Roda 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Volendam beat Roda 3-2 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 37, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 2.52 xG and Roda 1.12 xG, a combined 3.65. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Roda outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 1.34 / defence 1.01 against Roda attack 0.90 / defence 1.13, drawn from 36/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 67% | Draw 18% | Roda 14%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 67%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 71%, Roda 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Volendam's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Roda's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Volendam 1.40 PPG, Roda 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Volendam win broke the near-deadlock. FC Volendam (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm. Roda (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights