FC Volendam vs NAC Breda – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Volendam at 65%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Volendam vs NAC Breda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees NAC Breda travel to Kras Stadion to take on FC Volendam. The game is scheduled for Friday 19 February 2027, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Volendam — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC Volendam have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Volendam's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Kras Stadion this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, NAC Breda stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. NAC Breda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
NAC Breda's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC Volendam at 1.20 PPG versus NAC Breda's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Volendam register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, NAC Breda in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, FC Volendam have won 2, NAC Breda 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.2 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2026, ended 0–1 with NAC Breda winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
FC Volendam in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
NAC Breda in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Volendam 58% versus NAC Breda 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Volendam 63% | NAC Breda 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 2.62 xG and NAC Breda 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 1.260 / defence 0.806 | NAC Breda attack 1.035 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.933 / away 1.580. FC Volendam carry an above-average attack strength of 1.260 — their λ of 2.62 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 7 FC Volendam games / 7 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 65% | Draw 17% | NAC Breda 17%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 1.54 | Draw 5.88 | NAC Breda 5.88. The model has a clear lean to FC Volendam (65%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.93. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.93 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.62 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Volendam at 65% — clear model lean.
The Poisson model projects 3.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 75% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 60% | NAC Breda 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 19 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 65% | Draw 17% | NAC Breda 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 68% | xG FC Volendam 2.62 / NAC Breda 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 1.260 / def 0.806 | NAC Breda attack 1.035 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.933 / away 1.580 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.62
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.32
NAC Breda xG
68%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs NAC Breda kick off?
FC Volendam vs NAC Breda is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 19 February 2027 at Kras Stadion.
Where is FC Volendam vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs NAC Breda part of?
FC Volendam vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 65% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 17% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both FC Volendam and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and NAC Breda?
Record (4 meetings): FC Volendam 2W | Draws 1 | NAC Breda 1W.
What form are FC Volendam and NAC Breda in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. NAC Breda (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC Volendam's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against NAC Breda's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.62. The same calculation in reverse, NAC Breda's attack versus FC Volendam's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.8%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.7%), 1-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
65%
1.53
17%
5.78
17%
5.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.7%
Home win
1 – 1
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.62
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.93
1.32
NAC Breda xG
1.53
65%
Home win
5.78
17%
Draw
5.73
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.11
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
7%
13.67
Win to Nil
17%
5.72
1%
78.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 2.62 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.32 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 3.93.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs NAC Breda?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Volendam's recent record stands at 12W 6D 23L from 41 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC Volendam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
NAC Breda, meanwhile, have gone 9W 12D 20L across 41 games — 0.95 PPG, with W-D-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for NAC Breda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Volendam on 1.02 PPG, NAC Breda on 0.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC Volendam have managed 9W 4D 7L from 20 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.02 PPG overall — FC Volendam are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
NAC Breda's away record stands at 3W 7D 10L across 20 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Volendam are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.17 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Early Season
NAC Breda
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 12W 6D 23L in their last 41 games (1.02 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 9W 12D 20L in their last 41 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or NAC Breda away?
FC Volendam's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 1.55 PPG; NAC Breda away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
FC Volendam's record when hosting NAC Breda specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
FC Volendam
1
Draws
1
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and NAC Breda?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 2, NAC Breda have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when NAC Breda 1-0 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and NAC Breda?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Volendam at 70%, NAC Breda at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for FC Volendam and 70% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 15% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NAC Breda in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play NAC Breda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of FC Volendam's games and 60% of NAC Breda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of FC Volendam's matches and 70% of NAC Breda's.
Do FC Volendam and NAC Breda tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.