FC Volendam vs Jong PSV U21 – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Volendam at 72% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Volendam vs Jong PSV U21 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Jong PSV U21 travel to Kras Stadion to take on FC Volendam. The game is scheduled for Friday 19 March 2027, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Volendam stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC Volendam have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Volendam have posted 5W 1D 4L at Kras Stadion — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong PSV U21 have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong PSV U21 have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Volendam 1.20 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Volendam register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Jong PSV U21 in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, FC Volendam have won 3, Jong PSV U21 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2026, ended 2–3 with Jong PSV U21 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
FC Volendam in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Jong PSV U21 in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 60% and Jong PSV U21 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Volendam 63% | Jong PSV U21 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 2.84 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 1.255 / defence 0.811 | Jong PSV U21 attack 0.924 / defence 1.171. League average goals — home 1.933 / away 1.581. FC Volendam carry an above-average attack strength of 1.255 — their λ of 2.84 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 7 FC Volendam games / 47 Jong PSV U21 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 72% | Draw 15% | Jong PSV U21 13%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 1.39 | Draw 6.67 | Jong PSV U21 7.69. The model has a clear lean to FC Volendam (72%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 4.02. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.02 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.84 / 1.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Volendam are the pick at 72% — clear model lean.
Poisson projects 4.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 77% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 60% | Jong PSV U21 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Jong PSV U21 | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 19 Mar 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 72% | Draw 15% | Jong PSV U21 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 65% | xG FC Volendam 2.84 / Jong PSV U21 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 1.255 / def 0.811 | Jong PSV U21 attack 0.924 / def 1.171 | league avg home 1.933 / away 1.581 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.84
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Jong PSV U21 xG
65%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Jong PSV U21 kick off?
FC Volendam vs Jong PSV U21 is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 19 March 2027 at Kras Stadion.
Where is FC Volendam vs Jong PSV U21 being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Jong PSV U21 part of?
FC Volendam vs Jong PSV U21 is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Jong PSV U21?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 72% chance of winning, Jong PSV U21 a 13% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Jong PSV U21?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both FC Volendam and Jong PSV U21 will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Jong PSV U21 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Jong PSV U21?
Record (5 meetings): FC Volendam 3W | Draws 1 | Jong PSV U21 1W.
What form are FC Volendam and Jong PSV U21 in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Volendam's attack rating (1.25) and Jong PSV U21's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 2.84 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jong PSV U21's attack versus FC Volendam's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.5%. Close behind: 3-1 (8.1%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
72%
1.40
15%
6.58
13%
7.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.1%
Home win
2 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.84
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
4.02
1.18
Jong PSV U21 xG
1.40
72%
Home win
6.58
15%
Draw
7.59
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.89
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
6%
17.12
Win to Nil
22%
4.56
1%
129.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 5.1 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 8.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Jong PSV U21?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Jong PSV U21 expected to score?
The model projects 2.84 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.18 for Jong PSV U21, a combined total of 4.02.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Jong PSV U21?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Volendam come into this having played 43 games, going 12W 8D 23L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for FC Volendam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Jong PSV U21 sit at 1.30 PPG from 43 outings (16W 8D 19L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Volendam on 1.02 PPG, Jong PSV U21 on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
FC Volendam's home form reads 9W 5D 7L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.02 PPG overall — FC Volendam are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Jong PSV U21 have taken 1.00 points per game from 21 outings (6W 3D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Volendam are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Jong PSV U21 are on 1.67 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Jong PSV U21 in 67%.
Last 43 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Early Season
Jong PSV U21
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Jong PSV U21 in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 12W 8D 23L in their last 43 games (1.02 PPG), while Jong PSV U21 have gone 16W 8D 19L in their last 43 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Jong PSV U21 away?
FC Volendam's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 1.52 PPG; Jong PSV U21 away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 10 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Apr 2025, when FC Volendam won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Volendam's record when hosting Jong PSV U21 specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
FC Volendam
1
Draws
1
Jong PSV U21
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Jong PSV U21?
From 5 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 3, Jong PSV U21 have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Jong PSV U21 last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2026, when Jong PSV U21 3-2 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and Jong PSV U21?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Volendam at 71%, Jong PSV U21 at 76%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for FC Volendam and 76% for Jong PSV U21. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Jong PSV U21 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Jong PSV U21?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of FC Volendam's games and 76% of Jong PSV U21's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs Jong PSV U21 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of FC Volendam's matches and 76% of Jong PSV U21's.
Do FC Volendam and Jong PSV U21 tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Jong PSV U21 in 95% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.