FC Volendam vs Jong AZ – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC Volendam's attack at 1.29x the league average against Jong AZ's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 2.22 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jong AZ's attack (0.81x) against FC Volendam's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 17/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
63%
1.58
21%
4.84
16%
6.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.22
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.27
1.05
Jong AZ xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.84
21%
Draw
6.25
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
11%
9.23
Win to Nil
22%
4.49
2%
57.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.5 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 2.22 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.05 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Jong AZ?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.