FC Volendam vs Helmond Sport – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours FC Volendam (79%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FC Volendam face Helmond Sport.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Volendam and Helmond Sport meet at Kras Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Friday 8 January 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Volendam have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Volendam have posted 6W 0D 4L at Kras Stadion — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Helmond Sport (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Helmond Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Helmond Sport's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in FC Volendam's favour (1.60 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Helmond Sport in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Historically, FC Volendam have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 4 meetings, with Helmond Sport managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2025, ended 3–1 with FC Volendam winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both FC Volendam and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
FC Volendam — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Helmond Sport — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 61% and Helmond Sport 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Volendam 61% | Helmond Sport 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 3.67 xG and Helmond Sport 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 1.446 / defence 0.931 | Helmond Sport attack 0.924 / defence 1.389. League average goals — home 1.827 / away 1.580. FC Volendam carry an above-average attack strength of 1.446 — their λ of 3.67 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Helmond Sport bring a strong defensive rating of 1.389 — this is suppressing FC Volendam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 FC Volendam games / 51 Helmond Sport games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 79% | Draw 11% | Helmond Sport 10%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 1.27 | Draw 9.09 | Helmond Sport 10.00. The model has a clear lean to FC Volendam (79%) — a 69pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 88% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 5.03. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 88% — a total xG of 5.03 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (3.67 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Volendam are the pick at 79% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 5.03 combined xG gives a 88% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 72%. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 60% | Helmond Sport 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Helmond Sport | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 8 Jan 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 79% | Draw 11% | Helmond Sport 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 88% | BTTS 72% | xG FC Volendam 3.67 / Helmond Sport 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 1.446 / def 0.931 | Helmond Sport attack 0.924 / def 1.389 | league avg home 1.827 / away 1.580 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (79%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.67
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Helmond Sport xG
72%
BTTS
96%
Over 1.5
88%
Over 2.5
74%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Helmond Sport kick off?
FC Volendam vs Helmond Sport is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 8 January 2027 at Kras Stadion.
Where is FC Volendam vs Helmond Sport being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Helmond Sport part of?
FC Volendam vs Helmond Sport is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Helmond Sport?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 79% chance of winning, Helmond Sport a 10% chance, and a 11% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Helmond Sport?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both FC Volendam and Helmond Sport will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Helmond Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 88%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Helmond Sport?
Record (4 meetings): FC Volendam 3W | Draws 1 | Helmond Sport 0W.
What form are FC Volendam and Helmond Sport in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Helmond Sport (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FC Volendam's attack at 1.45x the league average against Helmond Sport's defence at 1.39x — combine the two and it projects 3.67 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Helmond Sport's attack (0.92x) against FC Volendam's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 13/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 3-1 carries the highest individual probability at 7.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 4-1 (6.7%), 2-1 (6.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 20% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
79%
1.26
11%
9.00
10%
10.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 1
7.3%
Home win
Most likely
4 – 1
6.7%
Home win
2 – 1
6.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.67
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
5.03
1.36
Helmond Sport xG
1.26
79%
Home win
9.00
11%
Draw
10.43
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
96%
Over 1.5
1.04
4%
Under 1.5
25.00
88%
Over 2.5
1.14
12%
Under 2.5
8.33
74%
Over 3.5
1.35
26%
Under 3.5
3.85
56%
Over 4.5
1.79
44%
Under 4.5
2.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.38
28%
BTTS No
3.63
Clean Sheet
26%
3.89
3%
39.25
Win to Nil
20%
4.91
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.0 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.9 | 6.7 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Helmond Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.3%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Helmond Sport expected to score?
The model projects 3.67 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.36 for Helmond Sport, a combined total of 5.03.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Helmond Sport?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 79%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 49 outings, FC Volendam have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 15W 9D 25L record — L-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Helmond Sport's form line: 13W 11D 25L from 49 games, 1.02 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-W. The sample for Helmond Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for FC Volendam against 1.02 for Helmond Sport. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC Volendam have posted 1.67 PPG from 24 outings (12W 4D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 1.10 PPG overall — FC Volendam are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Helmond Sport have gone 2W 3D 19L from 24 away games — 0.38 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.02 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Helmond Sport's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Volendam are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Helmond Sport are on 1.29 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Blended
Helmond Sport
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Helmond Sport in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 15W 9D 25L in their last 49 games (1.10 PPG), while Helmond Sport have gone 13W 11D 25L in their last 49 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Helmond Sport away?
FC Volendam's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 1.67 PPG; Helmond Sport away: 0.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
FC Volendam have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Volendam won 4-1 on 25 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Volendam have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Helmond Sport — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
FC Volendam
1
Draws
0
Helmond Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Helmond Sport?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 3, Helmond Sport have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Helmond Sport last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2025, when FC Volendam 3-1 Helmond Sport.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and Helmond Sport?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 71%, Helmond Sport 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for FC Volendam and 54% for Helmond Sport. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Helmond Sport in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Helmond Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Helmond Sport?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of FC Volendam's games and 46% of Helmond Sport's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs Helmond Sport usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of FC Volendam's matches and 54% of Helmond Sport's.
Do FC Volendam and Helmond Sport tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Helmond Sport in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.