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Prediction vindicated as FC Volendam edge out De Graafschap 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Volendam beat De Graafschap 2-1 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 2.19 xG and De Graafschap 1.09 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 1.29 / defence 0.83 against De Graafschap attack 0.94 / defence 1.10, drawn from 19/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 61% | Draw 23% | De Graafschap 16%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 68%, De Graafschap 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Volendam's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

De Graafschap's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.06. Form was overturned, with FC Volendam winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Volendam (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights