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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant FC Volendam run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Cambuur.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Volendam beat Cambuur 4-1 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.55 xG and Cambuur 1.46 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. FC Volendam beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 1.29 / defence 0.85 against Cambuur attack 1.34 / defence 0.73, drawn from 30/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 40% | Draw 24% | Cambuur 36%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 72%, Cambuur 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Volendam's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Cambuur's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Volendam 1.30 PPG, Cambuur 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Volendam win broke the near-deadlock. FC Volendam (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights