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Stalemate at FC OSS's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC OSS and Waalwijk finished level at 0-0 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.31 xG and Waalwijk 1.76 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC OSS fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Waalwijk landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.75 / defence 1.11 against Waalwijk attack 1.08 / defence 1.02, drawn from 53/15 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC OSS 29% | Draw 23% | Waalwijk 48%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 45%, Waalwijk 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC OSS's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Waalwijk's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC OSS 0.94 PPG, Waalwijk 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC OSS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line. Waalwijk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights