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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC OSS edge out VVV Venlo 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC OSS beat VVV Venlo 2-1 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 2.06 xG and VVV Venlo 1.39 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.98 / defence 1.11 against VVV Venlo attack 1.00 / defence 1.22, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC OSS 53% | Draw 21% | VVV Venlo 26%, with FC OSS to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 44%, VVV Venlo 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC OSS's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

VVV Venlo's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC OSS 0.98 PPG, VVV Venlo 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC OSS win broke the near-deadlock. FC OSS (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights