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Shock result as Vitesse defy the odds to beat FC OSS 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vitesse beat FC OSS 1-2 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.58 xG and Vitesse 1.46 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.97 / defence 1.09 against Vitesse attack 0.88 / defence 0.92, drawn from 62/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC OSS 39% | Draw 28% | Vitesse 34%, with FC OSS to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Vitesse win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 47%, Vitesse 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC OSS's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Vitesse's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC OSS 1.03 PPG, Vitesse 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vitesse win broke the near-deadlock. Vitesse (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights