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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC OSS and Vitesse share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 37, as FC OSS and Vitesse drew 2-2 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.41 xG and Vitesse 1.39 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.71 / defence 1.14 against Vitesse attack 0.98 / defence 1.19, drawn from 74/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC OSS 37% | Draw 27% | Vitesse 36%, with FC OSS to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 46%, Vitesse 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC OSS's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Vitesse's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC OSS 0.96 PPG, Vitesse 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC OSS (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm. Vitesse (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights