FC OSS vs Roda – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson rates Roda at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC OSS vs Roda encounter.

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Match Analysis

FC OSS host Roda at Frans Heesen Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 20 November 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Guide

FC OSS — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC OSS have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

FC OSS's home record at Frans Heesen Stadion: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Roda stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Roda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

On the road, Roda have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC OSS at 1.50 PPG versus Roda's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC OSS register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Roda in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

Roda have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 10 encounters against FC OSS's 2 victories.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jan 2026, ended 2–1 with FC OSS winning.

It is worth noting that Roda have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading Patterns

FC OSS in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 79% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games).

Roda in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC OSS 65% and Roda 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 63% | Roda 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.22 xG and Roda 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 0.912 / defence 1.008 | Roda attack 0.772 / defence 0.701. League average goals — home 1.911 / away 1.723. Roda's defence strength of 0.701 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 43 FC OSS games / 43 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FC OSS 34% | Draw 27% | Roda 40%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Roda 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Roda at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Roda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC OSS 80% | Roda 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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