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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Roda cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over FC OSS.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Roda beat FC OSS 0-2 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.46 xG and Roda 1.34 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. FC OSS fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.83 / defence 0.98 against Roda attack 0.97 / defence 1.14, drawn from 59/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC OSS 39% | Draw 27% | Roda 33%, with FC OSS to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Roda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 48%, Roda 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC OSS's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Roda's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. FC OSS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward. Roda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights