FC OSS 4-1 MVV – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC OSS at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC OSS vs MVV fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees MVV travel to Frans Heesen Stadion to take on FC OSS. The game is scheduled for Saturday 3 October 2026, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC OSS stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC OSS's form when playing at home: 5W 0D 5L across 10 games at Frans Heesen Stadion this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
MVV — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for MVV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
MVV's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. MVV are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC OSS register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, MVV in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for FC OSS, 5 for MVV and 1 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2026, ended 2–0 with FC OSS winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
FC OSS in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 79% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games).
MVV in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC OSS 63% versus MVV 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 63% | MVV 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 2.39 xG and MVV 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 0.984 / defence 0.907 | MVV attack 1.010 / defence 1.223. League average goals — home 1.987 / away 1.506. MVV bring a strong defensive rating of 1.223 — this is suppressing FC OSS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 FC OSS games / 46 MVV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC OSS 60% | Draw 19% | MVV 21%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 1.67 | Draw 5.26 | MVV 4.76. The model has a clear lean to FC OSS (60%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.77. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.77 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.39 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC OSS as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form MVV (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.77 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC OSS 80% | MVV 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs MVV | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 60% | Draw 19% | MVV 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 68% | xG FC OSS 2.39 / MVV 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 0.984 / def 0.907 | MVV attack 1.010 / def 1.223 | league avg home 1.987 / away 1.506 • Poisson stance: FC OSS (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.39
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
1.38
MVV xG
68%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs MVV kick off?
FC OSS vs MVV kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 3 October 2026 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What was the final score in FC OSS vs MVV?
FC OSS 4 - 1 MVV.
Where is FC OSS vs MVV being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs MVV part of?
FC OSS vs MVV is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs MVV?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 60% chance of winning, MVV a 21% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making FC OSS the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs MVV?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both FC OSS and MVV will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs MVV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and MVV?
Record (9 meetings): FC OSS 3W | Draws 1 | MVV 5W.
What form are FC OSS and MVV in?
FC OSS (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. MVV (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC OSS's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against MVV's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.39. The same calculation in reverse, MVV's attack versus FC OSS's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.6%), 3-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC OSS Win
60%
1.67
19%
5.26
21%
4.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.6%
Draw
3 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.39
FC OSS xG
Total xG
3.77
1.38
MVV xG
1.67
60%
Home win
5.26
19%
Draw
4.74
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.12
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
9%
10.94
Win to Nil
15%
6.63
2%
51.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 7.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs MVV?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are FC OSS and MVV expected to score?
The model projects 2.39 expected goals for FC OSS and 1.38 for MVV, a combined total of 3.77.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs MVV?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, FC OSS have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 13W 11D 22L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
MVV's form line: 14W 12D 20L from 46 games, 1.17 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-W. The sample for MVV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC OSS on 1.09 PPG, MVV on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, FC OSS have posted 1.23 PPG from 22 outings (8W 3D 11L).
On the road, MVV have gone 5W 6D 11L from 22 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
FC OSS are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; MVV are on 1.15 scored and 1.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC OSS have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Blended
MVV
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and MVV in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 13W 11D 22L in their last 46 games (1.09 PPG), while MVV have gone 14W 12D 20L in their last 46 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or MVV away?
FC OSS's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 1.23 PPG; MVV away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC OSS and MVV runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 3 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC OSS have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Feb 2023, when MVV won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC OSS's record when hosting MVV specifically: 3W 0D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC OSS
1
Draws
5
MVV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and MVV?
From 10 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 4, MVV have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and MVV last play each other?
They last met on 3 October 2026, when FC OSS 4-1 MVV.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and MVV?
MVV have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC OSS 68%, MVV 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for FC OSS and 64% for MVV. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: MVV in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / MVV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play MVV?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of FC OSS's games and 50% of MVV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC OSS vs MVV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of FC OSS's matches and 64% of MVV's.
Do FC OSS and MVV tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, MVV in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC OSS run riot with a 4-1 hammering of MVV.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC OSS beat MVV 4-1 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 2.39 xG and MVV 1.38 xG, a combined 3.77. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. FC OSS beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.98 / defence 0.91 against MVV attack 1.01 / defence 1.22, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC OSS 60% | Draw 19% | MVV 21%, with FC OSS to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 63%, MVV 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC OSS's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
MVV's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC OSS 1.09 PPG, MVV 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC OSS win broke the near-deadlock. FC OSS (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm. MVV (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.