🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as FC OSS edge out MVV 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC OSS beat MVV 1-0 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.62 xG and MVV 1.45 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. MVV landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.86 / defence 1.08 against MVV attack 0.95 / defence 1.20, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC OSS 40% | Draw 27% | MVV 33%, with FC OSS to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 48%, MVV 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC OSS's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.

MVV's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC OSS 0.97 PPG, MVV 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC OSS win broke the near-deadlock. FC OSS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line. MVV (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights