🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

FC OSS cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Jong Utrecht.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC OSS beat Jong Utrecht 3-1 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 35, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.33 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.26 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. FC OSS beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.92 / defence 1.15 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.72 / defence 0.92, drawn from 72/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC OSS 38% | Draw 26% | Jong Utrecht 35%, with FC OSS to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 49%, Jong Utrecht 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC OSS's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Jong Utrecht's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC OSS 0.94 PPG, Jong Utrecht 0.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC OSS win broke the near-deadlock. FC OSS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights