🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

FC OSS and Jong PSV U21 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC OSS and Jong PSV U21 finished level at 1-1 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.87 xG and Jong PSV U21 2.10 xG, a combined 3.97. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. FC OSS fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Jong PSV U21 landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.93 / defence 1.06 against Jong PSV U21 attack 1.42 / defence 1.16, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC OSS 35% | Draw 21% | Jong PSV U21 44%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 49%, Jong PSV U21 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC OSS's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Jong PSV U21's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC OSS 1.02 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights