FC OSS 1-1 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC OSS at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC OSS vs Jong AZ fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC OSS host Jong AZ at Frans Heesen Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 26 April 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FC OSS — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Frans Heesen Stadion, FC OSS have gone 5W 0D 5L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong AZ stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Jong AZ have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC OSS at 1.50 PPG versus Jong AZ's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC OSS register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Jong AZ in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for FC OSS, 3 for Jong AZ and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2023, ended 0–3 with Jong AZ winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
FC OSS in-play and half-time data (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Jong AZ in-play and half-time data (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC OSS 47% versus Jong AZ 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 59% | Jong AZ 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.60 xG and Jong AZ 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 0.819 / defence 1.283 | Jong AZ attack 0.831 / defence 1.198. League average goals — home 1.628 / away 1.396. Data: 73 FC OSS games / 73 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC OSS 40% | Draw 26% | Jong AZ 35%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Jong AZ 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC OSS as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC OSS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.08 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC OSS 60% | Jong AZ 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 26 Apr 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 40% | Draw 26% | Jong AZ 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG FC OSS 1.60 / Jong AZ 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 0.819 / def 1.283 | Jong AZ attack 0.831 / def 1.198 | league avg home 1.628 / away 1.396 • Poisson stance: FC OSS (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Jong AZ xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs Jong AZ kick off?
FC OSS vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 26 April 2024 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What was the final score in FC OSS vs Jong AZ?
FC OSS 1 - 1 Jong AZ.
Where is FC OSS vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs Jong AZ part of?
FC OSS vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 40% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FC OSS the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both FC OSS and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Jong AZ?
Record (5 meetings): FC OSS 1W | Draws 1 | Jong AZ 3W.
What form are FC OSS and Jong AZ in?
FC OSS (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC OSS's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Jong AZ's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. The same calculation in reverse, Jong AZ's attack versus FC OSS's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC OSS Win
40%
2.52
26%
3.92
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
FC OSS xG
Total xG
3.08
1.49
Jong AZ xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
23%
4.43
20%
4.94
Win to Nil
9%
11.18
7%
14.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.9 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.7 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are FC OSS and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for FC OSS and 1.49 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC OSS come into this having played 73 games, going 20W 9D 44L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, Jong AZ sit at 1.41 PPG from 73 outings (29W 16D 28L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five.
Jong AZ carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of FC OSS — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
FC OSS's home form reads 13W 3D 20L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong AZ have taken 0.94 points per game from 36 outings (9W 7D 20L). That's a step down from their 1.41 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jong AZ's season.
Goals in Recent Form
FC OSS are averaging 1.01 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.58 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ in 63%.
Last 73 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Current Season
Jong AZ
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 20W 9D 44L in their last 73 games (0.95 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 29W 16D 28L in their last 73 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or Jong AZ away?
FC OSS's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 1.17 PPG; Jong AZ away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Oct 2023, when Jong AZ won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC OSS's record when hosting Jong AZ specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC OSS
3
Draws
4
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Jong AZ?
From 10 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 3, Jong AZ have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when FC OSS 0-3 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and Jong AZ?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC OSS 50%, Jong AZ 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for FC OSS and 67% for Jong AZ. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC OSS have failed to score in 28% of games; Jong AZ in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play Jong AZ?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of FC OSS's games and 67% of Jong AZ's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC OSS vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of FC OSS's matches and 67% of Jong AZ's.
Do FC OSS and Jong AZ tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC OSS and Jong AZ share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 36, as FC OSS and Jong AZ drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.60 xG and Jong AZ 1.49 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.82 / defence 1.28 against Jong AZ attack 0.83 / defence 1.20, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC OSS 40% | Draw 26% | Jong AZ 35%, with FC OSS to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 59%, Jong AZ 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC OSS's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Jong AZ's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Jong AZ arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC OSS (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line. Jong AZ (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.