FC OSS 1-5 Heracles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Heracles at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC OSS vs Heracles fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC OSS host Heracles at Frans Heesen Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 17 March 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC OSS stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Frans Heesen Stadion, FC OSS have gone 4W 0D 6L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Heracles have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Heracles away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC OSS 1.30 PPG, Heracles 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, FC OSS have won 0, Heracles 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Nov 2022, ended 0–3 with Heracles winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
FC OSS in-play tendencies (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games).
Heracles in-play tendencies (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC OSS 58% versus Heracles 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 66% | Heracles 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.27 xG and Heracles 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 0.865 / defence 1.198 | Heracles attack 1.159 / defence 0.830. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.311. Data: 66 FC OSS games / 28 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC OSS 27% | Draw 23% | Heracles 50%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 3.70 | Draw 4.35 | Heracles 2.00. Heracles hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.27 / 1.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Heracles are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Heracles offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: FC OSS 40% | Heracles 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs Heracles | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 17 Mar 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 27% | Draw 23% | Heracles 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 60% | xG FC OSS 1.27 / Heracles 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 0.865 / def 1.198 | Heracles attack 1.159 / def 0.830 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.311 • Poisson stance: Heracles (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Heracles xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs Heracles kick off?
FC OSS vs Heracles kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 17 March 2023 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What was the final score in FC OSS vs Heracles?
FC OSS 1 - 5 Heracles.
Where is FC OSS vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs Heracles part of?
FC OSS vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 27% chance of winning, Heracles a 50% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both FC OSS and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Heracles?
Record (1 meetings): FC OSS 0W | Draws 0 | Heracles 1W.
What form are FC OSS and Heracles in?
FC OSS (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Heracles (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC OSS's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Heracles's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. The same calculation in reverse, Heracles's attack versus FC OSS's defence, projects 1.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
27%
3.74
23%
4.36
50%
1.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
FC OSS xG
Total xG
3.09
1.82
Heracles xG
3.74
27%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
1.99
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
16%
6.17
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
4%
23.10
14%
7.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 8.3 | 7.5 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.5 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.7 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are FC OSS and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for FC OSS and 1.82 for Heracles, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs Heracles?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC OSS come into this having played 64 games, going 18W 11D 35L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, Heracles sit at 1.47 PPG from 64 outings (28W 10D 26L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five.
Heracles carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of FC OSS — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
FC OSS's home form reads 10W 6D 16L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Heracles have taken 1.03 points per game from 32 outings (10W 3D 19L). That's a step down from their 1.47 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Heracles's season.
Goals in Recent Form
FC OSS are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 1.75 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Current Season
Heracles
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and Heracles in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 18W 11D 35L in their last 64 games (1.02 PPG), while Heracles have gone 28W 10D 26L in their last 64 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or Heracles away?
FC OSS's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 1.12 PPG; Heracles away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
FC OSS
0
Draws
2
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Heracles?
From 2 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 0, Heracles have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2023, when FC OSS 1-5 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and Heracles?
Heracles have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC OSS 59%, Heracles 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for FC OSS and 59% for Heracles. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play Heracles?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of FC OSS's recent matches and 44% of Heracles's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC OSS vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of FC OSS's matches and 59% of Heracles's.
Do FC OSS and Heracles tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Heracles in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Heracles run riot with a 1-5 hammering of FC OSS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heracles beat FC OSS 1-5 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.27 xG and Heracles 1.82 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Heracles outscored their 1.82 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.86 / defence 1.20 against Heracles attack 1.16 / defence 0.83, drawn from 66/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC OSS 27% | Draw 23% | Heracles 50%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 66%, Heracles 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC OSS's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Heracles's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Heracles arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC OSS (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Heracles (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.