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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Volendam cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over FC OSS.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Volendam beat FC OSS 0-2 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.09 xG and FC Volendam 1.95 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. FC OSS fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.67 / defence 1.24 against FC Volendam attack 1.21 / defence 1.00, drawn from 66/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC OSS 20% | Draw 23% | FC Volendam 57%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 47%, FC Volendam 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC OSS's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.

FC Volendam's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC OSS 0.95 PPG, FC Volendam 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Volendam win broke the near-deadlock. FC OSS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Volendam (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.13 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights