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Shock result as FC OSS defy the odds to beat FC Eindhoven 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC OSS beat FC Eindhoven 2-1 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 32, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.48 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.60 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.89 / defence 1.25 against FC Eindhoven attack 0.89 / defence 1.07, drawn from 70/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC OSS 36% | Draw 24% | FC Eindhoven 41%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual FC OSS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 48%, FC Eindhoven 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC OSS's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

FC Eindhoven's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC OSS 0.93 PPG, FC Eindhoven 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC OSS win broke the near-deadlock. FC OSS (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights