FC OSS 0-4 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Eindhoven at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC OSS vs FC Eindhoven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees FC Eindhoven travel to Frans Heesen Stadion to take on FC OSS. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 September 2024, 15:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC OSS have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. FC OSS have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC OSS's home record at Frans Heesen Stadion: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — FC OSS are significantly better at Frans Heesen Stadion than their overall form suggests.
FC Eindhoven — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. FC Eindhoven have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Eindhoven away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC OSS 0.90 PPG, FC Eindhoven 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, FC OSS have won 2, FC Eindhoven 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2024, ended 2–1 with FC OSS winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
FC OSS trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
FC Eindhoven trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC OSS 41% versus FC Eindhoven 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 48% | FC Eindhoven 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.19 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 0.895 / defence 1.043 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.900 / defence 0.892. League average goals — home 1.489 / away 1.346. Data: 44 FC OSS games / 44 FC Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC OSS 33% | Draw 31% | FC Eindhoven 36%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 3.03 | Draw 3.23 | FC Eindhoven 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Eindhoven are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Eindhoven offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC OSS 70% | FC Eindhoven 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Sep 2024, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 33% | Draw 31% | FC Eindhoven 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 52% | xG FC OSS 1.19 / FC Eindhoven 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 0.895 / def 1.043 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.900 / def 0.892 | league avg home 1.489 / away 1.346 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
1.26
FC Eindhoven xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
FC OSS vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 22 September 2024 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What was the final score in FC OSS vs FC Eindhoven?
FC OSS 0 - 4 FC Eindhoven.
Where is FC OSS vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs FC Eindhoven part of?
FC OSS vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 33% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 36% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both FC OSS and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and FC Eindhoven?
Record (6 meetings): FC OSS 2W | Draws 1 | FC Eindhoven 3W.
What form are FC OSS and FC Eindhoven in?
FC OSS (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC OSS's attack rating (0.90) and FC Eindhoven's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Eindhoven's attack versus FC OSS's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
33%
3.06
31%
3.21
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
FC OSS xG
Total xG
2.45
1.26
FC Eindhoven xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
9%
10.84
11%
9.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 10.9 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.9 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.7 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are FC OSS and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for FC OSS and 1.26 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs FC Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 44 outings, FC OSS have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 12W 5D 27L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for FC OSS, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Eindhoven's form line: 11W 18D 15L from 44 games, 1.16 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC OSS on 0.93 PPG, FC Eindhoven on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC OSS have posted 1.32 PPG from 22 outings (9W 2D 11L).
On the road, FC Eindhoven have gone 6W 9D 7L from 22 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
FC OSS are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.16 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Early Season
FC Eindhoven
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 12W 5D 27L in their last 44 games (0.93 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 11W 18D 15L in their last 44 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or FC Eindhoven away?
FC OSS's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 1.32 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
FC OSS have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Sep 2024, when FC Eindhoven won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC OSS's record when hosting FC Eindhoven specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC OSS
1
Draws
5
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and FC Eindhoven?
From 10 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 4, FC Eindhoven have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when FC OSS 2-1 FC Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and FC Eindhoven?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC OSS 50%, FC Eindhoven 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FC OSS) and 50% (FC Eindhoven).
On the defensive side: FC OSS have failed to score in 32% of games; FC Eindhoven in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play FC Eindhoven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of FC OSS's recent matches and 54% of FC Eindhoven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC OSS vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FC OSS's recent games and 50% of FC Eindhoven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC OSS and FC Eindhoven tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, FC Eindhoven in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Eindhoven run riot with a 0-4 hammering of FC OSS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Eindhoven beat FC OSS 0-4 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.19 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.26 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. FC OSS fell 1.2 short of their projected output. FC Eindhoven outscored their 1.26 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.90 / defence 1.04 against FC Eindhoven attack 0.90 / defence 0.89, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC OSS 33% | Draw 31% | FC Eindhoven 36%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 48%, FC Eindhoven 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC OSS's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC OSS 0.93 PPG, FC Eindhoven 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Eindhoven win broke the near-deadlock. FC OSS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.