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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant FC OSS run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Emmen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC OSS beat Emmen 4-0 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.65 xG and Emmen 1.61 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. FC OSS beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Emmen landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.85 / defence 1.18 against Emmen attack 0.89 / defence 1.12, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC OSS 39% | Draw 23% | Emmen 38%, with FC OSS to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 46%, Emmen 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC OSS's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.

Emmen's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.98. Form was overturned, with FC OSS winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC OSS (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line. Emmen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights