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Dominant Emmen run riot with a 0-4 hammering of FC OSS.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Emmen beat FC OSS 0-4 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.24 xG and Emmen 1.20 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. FC OSS fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Emmen outscored their 1.20 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.72 / defence 1.07 against Emmen attack 0.90 / defence 1.04, drawn from 64/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC OSS 37% | Draw 28% | Emmen 35%, with FC OSS to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Emmen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 45%, Emmen 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC OSS's trading profile (64 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Emmen's trading profile (64 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC OSS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Emmen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights