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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Dordrecht run riot with a 0-3 hammering of FC OSS.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dordrecht beat FC OSS 0-3 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.56 xG and Dordrecht 1.07 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. FC OSS fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Dordrecht outscored their 1.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 1.15 / defence 0.94 against Dordrecht attack 0.89 / defence 0.81, drawn from 41/41 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it FC OSS 49% | Draw 25% | Dordrecht 26%, with FC OSS to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Dordrecht win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 44%, Dordrecht 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC OSS's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Dordrecht's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC OSS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dordrecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights