🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

FC OSS cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Dordrecht.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC OSS beat Dordrecht 2-0 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 35, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.04 xG and Dordrecht 1.43 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FC OSS beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dordrecht landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.65 / defence 1.24 against Dordrecht attack 0.92 / defence 0.96, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC OSS 27% | Draw 28% | Dordrecht 45%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual FC OSS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 44%, Dordrecht 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC OSS's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.

Dordrecht's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 0.93. Form was overturned, with FC OSS winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC OSS (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights