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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC OSS cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Den Bosch.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC OSS beat Den Bosch 4-2 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 37, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.83 xG and Den Bosch 1.84 xG, a combined 3.67. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. FC OSS beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.99 / defence 1.16 against Den Bosch attack 1.07 / defence 1.15, drawn from 74/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC OSS 39% | Draw 22% | Den Bosch 39%, with FC OSS to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 51%, Den Bosch 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC OSS's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Den Bosch's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC OSS 1.03 PPG, Den Bosch 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC OSS win broke the near-deadlock. FC OSS (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm. Den Bosch (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights