🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as De Graafschap edge out FC OSS 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

De Graafschap beat FC OSS 2-3 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.28 xG and De Graafschap 2.17 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. De Graafschap outscored their 2.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.79 / defence 1.16 against De Graafschap attack 1.24 / defence 0.94, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC OSS 22% | Draw 20% | De Graafschap 58%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 45%, De Graafschap 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC OSS's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

De Graafschap's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. FC OSS (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual. De Graafschap (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights