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Prediction vindicated as Cambuur edge out FC OSS 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cambuur beat FC OSS 1-2 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.34 xG and Cambuur 2.07 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.88 / defence 1.18 against Cambuur attack 1.21 / defence 0.92, drawn from 66/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC OSS 24% | Draw 23% | Cambuur 53%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 47%, Cambuur 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC OSS's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Cambuur's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 0.98. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights