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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Almere City FC defy the odds to beat FC OSS 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Almere City FC beat FC OSS 1-2 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.40 xG and Almere City FC 1.30 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.68 / defence 1.01 against Almere City FC attack 0.88 / defence 1.20, drawn from 55/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC OSS 39% | Draw 26% | Almere City FC 35%, with FC OSS to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Almere City FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 43%, Almere City FC 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC OSS's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Almere City FC's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC OSS 0.98 PPG, Almere City FC 0.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Almere City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Almere City FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.84 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights