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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as ADO Den Haag edge out FC OSS 3-4.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

ADO Den Haag beat FC OSS 3-4 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 0.87 xG and ADO Den Haag 2.21 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. FC OSS beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. ADO Den Haag outscored their 2.21 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.66 / defence 1.07 against ADO Den Haag attack 1.42 / defence 0.77, drawn from 57/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC OSS 13% | Draw 19% | ADO Den Haag 67%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 67%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 44%, ADO Den Haag 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC OSS's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

ADO Den Haag's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC OSS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights