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Prediction vindicated as FC Eindhoven edge out Waalwijk 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Eindhoven beat Waalwijk 1-0 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 1.71 xG and Waalwijk 1.49 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Waalwijk landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 0.87 / defence 1.07 against Waalwijk attack 1.09 / defence 1.15, drawn from 40/2 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 43% | Draw 23% | Waalwijk 34%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 61%, Waalwijk 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Eindhoven's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Waalwijk's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.81. Form held, and they took the win. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. Waalwijk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights