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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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VVV Venlo cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over FC Eindhoven.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

VVV Venlo beat FC Eindhoven 1-3 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 1.16 xG and VVV Venlo 1.15 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. VVV Venlo outscored their 1.15 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 0.61 / defence 1.00 against VVV Venlo attack 0.82 / defence 1.23, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 34% | Draw 32% | VVV Venlo 34%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual VVV Venlo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 48%, VVV Venlo 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Eindhoven's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

VVV Venlo's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Eindhoven 1.21 PPG, VVV Venlo 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VVV Venlo win broke the near-deadlock. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights