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Dominant Vitesse run riot with a 0-4 hammering of FC Eindhoven.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vitesse beat FC Eindhoven 0-4 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 1.77 xG and Vitesse 1.68 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. FC Eindhoven fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Vitesse outscored their 1.68 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 0.90 / defence 1.11 against Vitesse attack 1.07 / defence 1.11, drawn from 49/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 41% | Draw 22% | Vitesse 37%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Vitesse win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 59%, Vitesse 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Eindhoven's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Vitesse's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Eindhoven 1.22 PPG, Vitesse 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vitesse win broke the near-deadlock. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vitesse (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.32 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights