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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Eindhoven and Vitesse share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 29, as FC Eindhoven and Vitesse drew 3-3 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 2.20 xG and Vitesse 1.55 xG, a combined 3.75. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. FC Eindhoven beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Vitesse outscored their 1.55 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 0.92 / defence 1.21 against Vitesse attack 0.98 / defence 1.47, drawn from 66/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 52% | Draw 22% | Vitesse 26%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 56%, Vitesse 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Eindhoven's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Vitesse's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Eindhoven 1.18 PPG, Vitesse 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vitesse (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights