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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Telstar run riot with a 0-4 hammering of FC Eindhoven.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Telstar beat FC Eindhoven 0-4 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 35, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 1.58 xG and Telstar 1.45 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. FC Eindhoven fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Telstar outscored their 1.45 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 0.92 / defence 1.24 against Telstar attack 0.94 / defence 1.03, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 41% | Draw 24% | Telstar 35%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Telstar win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 56%, Telstar 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Eindhoven's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Telstar's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Eindhoven 1.22 PPG, Telstar 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Telstar win broke the near-deadlock. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Telstar (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights