FC Eindhoven vs Roda – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Roda at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Eindhoven vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Eindhoven and Roda meet at Jan Louwers Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 December 2026 at 11:15 UTC.
Current Form
FC Eindhoven's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. FC Eindhoven have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Jan Louwers Stadion, FC Eindhoven have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — FC Eindhoven are significantly better at Jan Louwers Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Roda have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Roda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Roda have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FC Eindhoven have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Roda in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC Eindhoven lead 2W to 3W over the last 10 encounters, with 5 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2026, ended 1–3 with Roda winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
FC Eindhoven — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Roda — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Eindhoven 50% versus Roda 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 64% | Roda 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 1.24 xG and Roda 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 0.905 / defence 1.036 | Roda attack 0.745 / defence 0.726. League average goals — home 1.884 / away 1.751. Roda's defence strength of 0.726 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 44 FC Eindhoven games / 43 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 34% | Draw 26% | Roda 39%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Roda 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Roda are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Roda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: FC Eindhoven 70% | Roda 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Dec 2026, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 34% | Draw 26% | Roda 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG FC Eindhoven 1.24 / Roda 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 0.905 / def 1.036 | Roda attack 0.745 / def 0.726 | league avg home 1.884 / away 1.751 • Poisson stance: Roda (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Roda xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Eindhoven vs Roda kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs Roda is scheduled to kick off at 11:15 on Sunday 6 December 2026 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs Roda part of?
FC Eindhoven vs Roda is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 34% chance of winning, Roda a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both FC Eindhoven and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will FC Eindhoven vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Roda?
Record (10 meetings): FC Eindhoven 2W | Draws 5 | Roda 3W.
What form are FC Eindhoven and Roda in?
FC Eindhoven (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Roda (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FC Eindhoven's attack at 0.91x the league average against Roda's defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Roda's attack (0.74x) against FC Eindhoven's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 44/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
34%
2.93
26%
3.79
39%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
2.59
1.35
Roda xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.53
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
9%
11.32
11%
8.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.1 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.6 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 1.35 for Roda, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Eindhoven's recent record stands at 16W 6D 22L from 44 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Roda, meanwhile, have gone 15W 17D 12L across 44 games — 1.41 PPG, with W-W-D-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Roda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for FC Eindhoven against 1.41 for Roda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FC Eindhoven have managed 10W 3D 9L from 22 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Roda's away record stands at 10W 8D 4L across 22 trips, a 1.73 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.45 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Roda in 64%.
Last 44 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Early Season
Roda
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Eindhoven and Roda in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 16W 6D 22L in their last 44 games (1.23 PPG), while Roda have gone 15W 17D 12L in their last 44 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or Roda away?
Roda's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 1.50 PPG; Roda away: 1.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Roda won 3-0 on 22 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Eindhoven have gone 0W 4D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Roda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Eindhoven
5
Draws
3
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Eindhoven have won 2, Roda have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when FC Eindhoven 1-3 Roda.
Who has won more matches between FC Eindhoven and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Eindhoven 54%, Roda 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for FC Eindhoven and 59% for Roda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Eindhoven play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of FC Eindhoven's games and 68% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Eindhoven vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of FC Eindhoven's matches and 59% of Roda's.
Do FC Eindhoven and Roda tend to score early?
FC Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Roda in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.