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Roda cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over FC Eindhoven.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Roda beat FC Eindhoven 1-3 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 36, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 1.49 xG and Roda 1.67 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Roda outscored their 1.67 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 1.12 / defence 0.97 against Roda attack 1.16 / defence 0.83, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 34% | Draw 23% | Roda 42%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 63%, Roda 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Eindhoven's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Roda's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Eindhoven 1.30 PPG, Roda 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Roda win broke the near-deadlock. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Roda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights