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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Jong Utrecht defy the odds to beat FC Eindhoven 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jong Utrecht beat FC Eindhoven 1-2 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 2.28 xG and Jong Utrecht 0.98 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. FC Eindhoven fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Jong Utrecht outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 0.99 / defence 1.15 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.66 / defence 1.40, drawn from 64/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 66% | Draw 19% | Jong Utrecht 14%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a Jong Utrecht win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 55%, Jong Utrecht 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Eindhoven's trading profile (62 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Jong Utrecht's trading profile (62 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 1.19 PPG against 0.65. Form was overturned, with Jong Utrecht winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.41 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights