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Dominant FC Eindhoven run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Jong PSV U21.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Eindhoven beat Jong PSV U21 4-0 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 1.82 xG and Jong PSV U21 2.40 xG, a combined 4.22. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. FC Eindhoven beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong PSV U21 landed 2.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 0.84 / defence 1.32 against Jong PSV U21 attack 1.26 / defence 1.27, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 30% | Draw 20% | Jong PSV U21 51%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual FC Eindhoven win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 61% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 59%, Jong PSV U21 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Eindhoven's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Jong PSV U21's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Eindhoven 1.23 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Eindhoven win broke the near-deadlock. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights