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Shock result as FC Eindhoven defy the odds to beat Jong AZ 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Eindhoven beat Jong AZ 3-2 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 1.82 xG and Jong AZ 2.11 xG, a combined 3.93. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. FC Eindhoven beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 0.98 / defence 1.16 against Jong AZ attack 1.21 / defence 1.07, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 34% | Draw 21% | Jong AZ 45%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual FC Eindhoven win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 60%, Jong AZ 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Eindhoven's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Jong AZ's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Eindhoven 1.29 PPG, Jong AZ 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Eindhoven win broke the near-deadlock. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm. Jong AZ (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights