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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Jong AZ cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over FC Eindhoven.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jong AZ beat FC Eindhoven 2-4 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 37, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 1.32 xG and Jong AZ 2.25 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Jong AZ outscored their 2.25 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 0.84 / defence 1.38 against Jong AZ attack 1.31 / defence 0.94, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 21% | Draw 21% | Jong AZ 58%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 55%, Jong AZ 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Eindhoven's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Jong AZ's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Eindhoven 1.23 PPG, Jong AZ 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong AZ win broke the near-deadlock. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights