FC Eindhoven 0-3 Jong Ajax – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Eindhoven at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Eindhoven host Jong Ajax at Jan Louwers Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 24 August 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Eindhoven — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. FC Eindhoven have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Eindhoven at Jan Louwers Stadion this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong Ajax stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Jong Ajax have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Jong Ajax have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Eindhoven 1.20 PPG, Jong Ajax 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, FC Eindhoven have won 1, Jong Ajax 1, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Dec 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
FC Eindhoven trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Jong Ajax trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Eindhoven 52% versus Jong Ajax 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 48% | Jong Ajax 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 1.70 xG and Jong Ajax 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 0.986 / defence 0.960 | Jong Ajax attack 1.053 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.279. Data: 40 FC Eindhoven games / 40 Jong Ajax games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 45% | Draw 28% | Jong Ajax 27%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Jong Ajax 3.70. FC Eindhoven hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Eindhoven as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Eindhoven offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: FC Eindhoven 30% | Jong Ajax 70%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Aug 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 45% | Draw 28% | Jong Ajax 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG FC Eindhoven 1.70 / Jong Ajax 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 0.986 / def 0.960 | Jong Ajax attack 1.053 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Jong Ajax xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 24 August 2024 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax?
FC Eindhoven 0 - 3 Jong Ajax.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax part of?
FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 45% chance of winning, Jong Ajax a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both FC Eindhoven and Jong Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Jong Ajax?
Record (6 meetings): FC Eindhoven 1W | Draws 4 | Jong Ajax 1W.
What form are FC Eindhoven and Jong Ajax in?
FC Eindhoven (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Jong Ajax (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC Eindhoven's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Jong Ajax's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.70. The same calculation in reverse, Jong Ajax's attack versus FC Eindhoven's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
45%
2.22
28%
3.63
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
2.99
1.29
Jong Ajax xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
18%
5.47
Win to Nil
12%
8.07
5%
20.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.0 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and Jong Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 1.29 for Jong Ajax, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Eindhoven come into this having played 40 games, going 11W 16D 13L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Jong Ajax sit at 1.05 PPG from 40 outings (10W 12D 18L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Jong Ajax, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Eindhoven on 1.23 PPG, Jong Ajax on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
FC Eindhoven's home form reads 5W 8D 7L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong Ajax have taken 0.60 points per game from 20 outings (2W 6D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.05 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jong Ajax's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Jong Ajax are on 1.40 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Ajax in 62%.
Last 40 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Early Season
Jong Ajax
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Eindhoven and Jong Ajax in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 11W 16D 13L in their last 40 games (1.23 PPG), while Jong Ajax have gone 10W 12D 18L in their last 40 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or Jong Ajax away?
FC Eindhoven's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 1.15 PPG; Jong Ajax away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
FC Eindhoven go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Mar 2023, when FC Eindhoven won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Eindhoven's record when hosting Jong Ajax specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC Eindhoven
4
Draws
2
Jong Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Jong Ajax?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Eindhoven have won 4, Jong Ajax have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and Jong Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when FC Eindhoven 2-1 Jong Ajax.
Who has won more matches between FC Eindhoven and Jong Ajax?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Eindhoven at 50%, Jong Ajax at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (FC Eindhoven) and 75% (Jong Ajax). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 15% and 55% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / Jong Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Eindhoven play Jong Ajax?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of FC Eindhoven's games and 80% of Jong Ajax's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of FC Eindhoven's matches and 75% of Jong Ajax's.
Do FC Eindhoven and Jong Ajax tend to score early?
FC Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Jong Ajax in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Jong Ajax run riot with a 0-3 hammering of FC Eindhoven.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Ajax beat FC Eindhoven 0-3 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 1.70 xG and Jong Ajax 1.29 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. FC Eindhoven fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Jong Ajax outscored their 1.29 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 0.99 / defence 0.96 against Jong Ajax attack 1.05 / defence 1.12, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 45% | Draw 28% | Jong Ajax 27%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Jong Ajax win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 48%, Jong Ajax 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Jong Ajax's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Eindhoven 1.23 PPG, Jong Ajax 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong Ajax win broke the near-deadlock. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.