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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Eindhoven and Helmond Sport share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Eindhoven and Helmond Sport finished level at 2-2 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 32, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 1.87 xG and Helmond Sport 1.65 xG, a combined 3.52. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 0.94 / defence 1.32 against Helmond Sport attack 0.98 / defence 1.21, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 44% | Draw 22% | Helmond Sport 34%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 55%, Helmond Sport 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Eindhoven's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Helmond Sport's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Eindhoven 1.20 PPG, Helmond Sport 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights