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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Volendam cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over FC Eindhoven.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Volendam beat FC Eindhoven 1-3 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 0.95 xG and FC Volendam 1.76 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. FC Volendam outscored their 1.76 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 0.65 / defence 1.12 against FC Volendam attack 1.12 / defence 0.94, drawn from 58/20 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 19% | Draw 27% | FC Volendam 55%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 54%, FC Volendam 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Eindhoven's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

FC Volendam's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Eindhoven 1.13 PPG, FC Volendam 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Volendam win broke the near-deadlock. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Volendam (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.15 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights